Any new government has to be better than the tories over the last 14 years; party-gate, ordering ferries from a company with no ships, crashing the economy, gambling on the election date with insider knowledge…and on an on. It’s time for change, it’s palpable; the TU campaign aptly called Enough is Enough captured the mood.
So with the apparently nailed on prospect of a Labour victory why is it so uninspiring?
The Tories are unbelievably corrupt, bankrupt of ideas and incompetent, they continue to promote low tax meaning even worse public services, and are intent on making green policies a culture war issue. Their worship of Thatcherism makes them backward looking, their belief in small government makes them incapable of meaningful interventions, whether its guiding industrial strategy or adequate funding for the services we all use. It’s so bad that many tories are saying they will vote labour, here is just one example;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/20/tory-minister-need-labour-government?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
The problem seems to be with the opposition and in the quality of debate. We get more news about the election seen as a race, than on the substance of the ideas that need to be debated, this is an election as navel gazing. The concentration on constant polling has undesirable effects. UK is unique in not banning polls during the campaign. This article captures the mood of people around the country:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/23/landslide-polling-companies-election-labour?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
The old saying that it is governments that lose elections not oppositions who win them is so true this time that we are all being punished for Labour’s caution. When he took over the policy framework was in place, it just needed a safe pair of hands (Jeremy Corbyn was just too ineffective and had too much baggage).The radical policies were jettisoned because of a mixture of extreme caution, ultra focused (professional/scientific) concentration on disaffected tories, and top down abandonment of internal democracy in favour of central control in the party. Apologists vaguely say wait till the second term. Who could have predicted in 2019 that:
- The SNP would spectacularly implode, beset with financial scandals, identity politics and poor administration whilst independence has not been brought any nearer
- The Lib Dem’s would fail to cut through, Ed Davey’s Johnson like antics are a desperate bid to break through as they still struggle to overcome the damage they suffered in coalition and the u-turn on student fees followed by a succession of naive leaders.
- At the same time Labour are lacklustre, Starmer has reneged on promises he made to get the leadership and has purged the party of its legitimate left wing - the Labour Party was a coalition of organisations representing organised labour, it had left and right, reformers and radicals, it has never been so undemocratic, centralist and disciplinarian. This is just one example - a candidate disciplined for campaigning in thre constituency they were parachuted into Labour ‘not putting up a fight’ against Farage https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/26/labour-not-putting-up-a-fight-against-farage-in-clacton
As Neal Lawson of Compass points out there are implications of deciding to win from the right; https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/23/strategy-keir-starmer-no-10-labour?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
So if you are at all worried about the climate crisis, social care, and public service cuts, if you think we need to get real about our place in the world and get closer to Europe, if you know there are ways of raising money that are being ignored how do you vote? These are the elephants in the room in this election, we all know they are there, they make us uncomfortable but in this campaign the main parties seem to be ignoring them https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/09/in-all-this-noisy-election-debate-why-is-there-a-conspiracy-of-silence-about-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
There is one more big issue; in a first past the post system many seats are safe and your vote is wasted - either you just pile on votes for the one who would win anyway or you cast a forlorn hope vote for a candidate with no earthly chance. Governments are constantly rewarded with overall majorities without getting a majority of the votes cast. The Tories have long since abandoned Lord Hailsham’s stricture to govern for everyone and take up with vigour minority extreme right polices as if they had a mandate, then Lizz Truss acts surprised when even the markets turn against them. Who could imagine there would ever be a Tory PM who could be quoted saying “fuck business” (Boris Johnson during the Brexit referendum).
Perversely by deciding to court disaffected tory voters Labour will get a majority of seats (this general election is forecast to be the most disproportionate ever) and voluntarily hem itself in and ignore polices that have majority approval; polls consistently show the public are more radical than labour.
Labour policy was eventually changed to support PR by a determined campaign. It is now inline with all the other progressive parties on that ; https://www.ft.com/content/0afa2c8f-3e4f-4b2c-83be-cda81250dfc6 but would you bet on it if they achieve a super majority? See also https://makevotesmatter.org.uk/first-past-the-post/
Finally I think George Monbiot captures the historical truth that too often goes unremarked; those of us who experienced the post war settlement experienced something that was a historical blip - decent treatment to ordinary people, full employment, working services, a generous safety net. Look to history, and learn how to confront the oligarchic class; https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/27/oligarchs-democracies-britain-1945-economic-powers
What he doesn’t mention that also plays into this; the right was preparing a fight back (Heyeks paper The Road to Surfdom was published during the war, it had to wait until 1979 for its policies to be followed). The sheer existence of the communist block kept capitalism in check (Nixon and Khrushchev debated this in 1964), its welcome collapse (for it was tyrannical) opened the flood gates and allowed babies to be thrown out with the bath water. And importantly, our living standards were propped up by the exploitation of cheap labour and resources - a fact that explains why people cite “western hypocrisy” and don’t rush to join the support of Ukraine.
The 2024 general election is the result of a long historical process, so how to vote?
I cannot make a party recommendation - tactics vary depending on the seat, anyone but the Tory or Reform who has a chance to win. I find the following more helpful then the manifestos
How to find the money to fund the policies we need, see recent posts and particularly the section How to Pay for It under resources.
- Open Democracy and Peter Geoghan from Democracy for Sale
To look where the money is coming from and how technology is being used to manipulate opinion.
The case for PR and other changes
For keeping cross party cooperation firmly on the agenda in a hostile polarising political environment. Compas is also encouraging vote swapping - you swap your vote with a person in another constituency, they vote for the person most likely to beat the Tory and you make their vote in a "safe" seat.If this appeals you can find the tool here https://winasone.org.uk
For good analysis informed by research
Get ready for the campaign to make the Labour government address the big issues.