It’s the Economy Stupid – Redux

‘It’s the economy – stupid’ was a bullet point on a whiteboard in Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign war room (1). It subsequently got into general usage. I take it to mean that the economy is basic, it matters to people. The economy is at the centre of everything from the denial of global warming to resource depletion, environmental degradation, extinctions, pollution and the mechanisms of global heating itself.

I’m always on the lookout for good news, despite a news cycle that teeters on the brink of hysteria, there is good news out there. A book by Hannah Ritchie, entitled A Hopeful Guide to Solving Climate Change in 50 Questions and Answers (2) looked interesting. ‘Hannah Ritchie, a global development data scientist and the author of Not the End of the World, has followed that work up with a book that addresses 50 objections to the adoption of greener technology.’

Here is an extract from the review; “There is similar hope, Ritchie explains, for the prospects of mineral recycling, low-carbon cement, electrified ferries and hydrogen as a fuel for airliners. (“Hannah Ritchie's Clearing the Air offers practical solutions for ...”) Meanwhile, most of the objections to increasing our use of solar, wind and nuclear energy are bogus.” Some things to question but it is useful (and hopeful) to know we can do this without using carbon.

What triggered me was this commentary by the reviewer: ‘Collective action is often anathema to conservatives, of course, and near the end the author does leave an opening for those who believe talk of climate action is just a subterfuge for enforcing leftist policies. "“This transition is not a sacrifice,” Ritchie writes, “it’s an opportunity to build a better, fairer and more sustainable world.”" (“Clearing the Air by Hannah Ritchie review – practical climate optimism”) Wait, I thought we were talking about mitigating risks from global heating, not building a fairer world (my emphasis). Many people may agree that we should smuggle in a more egalitarian politics under cover of environmental concern, but opponents will just point to such talk as evidence of a greenwashed conspiracy.’ (“Clearing the Air by Hannah Ritchie review – practical climate optimism”). Underneath everything is the economy, we refer significantly to the consumer economy, not a citizen’s economy, we emphasise consumption. That means using stuff up. 

So here is my issue, the implications of climate change are profound and there is huge pressure already built into the system e.g. melting tundra permafrost releasing methane. Well, there is huge pressure built into the economy as well – it might only be another 2 billion people but its 4x as many as were on the planet when I was born (3). This is highly significant for the consumer economy; it means increased demand for stuff is also baked in for another 20-30 years. It’s not just about stopping burning carbon, it’s the economy, stupid. We are causing extinctions and degrading the whole environment, this biosphere is the only one we have. 

It is not clear from the review if Richie gets it (she has the data). But to characterise it as the reviewer does, smuggling in more egalitarian politics shows that he doesn’t. 

We (the rich 20%) got that way by releasing captured sunlight, we had the Industrial Revolution and in that we went from on open system powered by the sun, to a closed system using fossilised sunlight – that makes the system subject to entropy in a much more direct way (4). Point one – if everyone follows the same economic development rout we took, then we are doomed (5).

Let’s stick with the economy. Car production dipped because of the pandemic but is now coming back, the trend from 2000 is rising (6). Plastic continues to be produced with little sign of reduction – packing stuff up is the biggest use (7) we need to remember that plastic is a by-product of fossil fuels. 

The consumer economy and individual consumption together with burning fossil fuels are the root causes of the climate crisis. A green new deal is needed and could provide jobs, hope and prosperity but an energy transition alongside reuse, recycle and repair, which seems to be what some proponets of a green new deal imply, just won’t cut it (8).

Point two. We really do need to distribute resources, so we have private sufficiency with public luxury - so that individuals need less stuff (9), that’s the logic of limited resources on a finite planet with a massive human population. The end of the consumer economy the invention of an economy that delivers sustainable public goods.

The fact is that once you start talking about sharing, cooperation and collaboration you are implying the death warrant of rampant capitalism. The reason that lots of big business with its conservative and libertarian political allies push back so vehemently is because deep down they know the economic model on which their wealth is based is unsustainable. Let’s be clear I’m not much interested in making everything run as a cooperative, or having total equality in wages, there is a place for some hierarchy (we are apes after all) but we cannot keep going as we are

Imagin this, in your neighbourhood (10) (11)

• Community owned shops so rents are not extracted - one city council in Gernmany allows compulsory community purchase of unsued retail space
• Community fabrication and repair - repair shops are spreading, but look out for where 3D printing can take us
• Community kitchens, laundries and childcare - howoever bad the GDR was by looking after these things they nearly got to 50/50 gender in work
• Allotments and parkland within easy reach
• The local school is a good school, our children can safely walk there
• Theatres, music, art and craft centres all within reach
• Fabulous public transport for the longer distance trips on holidays and high days - reduce car ownership, dont just make it electric
• Everything within walking distance, libraries, schools, sport facilities - the 15 minoute city means more freedom not less
• The community looking after itself – real meaningful decentralisation – lots of interlinked urban villages...

Far from smuggling this in it needs shouting about. Life can be better. How do we persuade people who are told time and again that pursuing individual ownership and using stuff up is the only way? How do we switch from chasing the chimera that we can have it all at the same time tolerating public squalor? This is the actual political challenge of the next 30 years that is inseparable from decarbonisation if we are to transition to a sustainable future.

Where are the politicians who are prepared to paint this vision and start persuading people? Where are the leaders who will decentralise and empower local communities so that they can transform and control their localities? Where are the politicians prepared to say no to entrenched power and stand with people to resist because the paradigm will change? 

When the paradigm changes will we be building on changes that are starting now, or will it need a push? In either case the birth of the new society needs a midwife. If it comes to a Maidan moment (12) there will either breakdown or collective endeavour to build a better society.

There is lots of good stuff going on at grassroots level, it has taken many generations to make us all into long distance commuters, living in cultural and food deserts, dependent on cars, we have a lot of unravelling to do; that unravelling can become exiting community led rebuilding, work for all, but it needs leadership and facilitation.