1 What is going on and how might it play out?
What is going on?
The West is in shock because this is a full spectrum, brutal war being waged right up to the geographical boundaries that now define it. It is being called unprecedented, a shifting of the tectonic plates, a wakeup call, as if it came out of the blue Note; Geoghegan . In this world view it matters not; that warnings about Putin were ignored. Note; Warnings , that wars in Chechnya and Georgia let alone against Serbia are discounted, that historical precedent suggests we should have been kinder to Russia after “winning” the cold war Note; Ways of winning , that there is a fear of NATOs boundaries going right inside what the Tzars, the USSR and now Russian Federation see as their rightful sphere of influence Note; Geography . The roots of this war go a long way back indeed Note; Deep Roots
Settling into an old familiar pattern
The war is not the shifting of the tectonic plates of history but their settling into an old familiar pattern – that of competing power blocks Note; Power Blocks .
The tectonic plates shifted in 1989-91 when first the Eastern European regimes fell and then the Soviet Union imploded. Since then we have been present at Act 1 of the new age, it is referred to as a multi-polar world, it is just power bloc competition and has been with us throughout history.
During Act 1 the West mistakenly thought that it had won the Cold War, that the world had become unipolar; from then on, all that would happen would be the gradual extension of liberal capitalist democracy – both the EU and NATO spread eastwards.
During Act 1 we have seen power blocks emerging; in the early stages the rise of the BRICs was noted. Later it also became apparent that the Wests idea of capitalist-democracy might not just spread through the world. Act 1 had some notable events, 9/11, the financial crash of 2008, the wars in the Gulf and Afghanistan, the destruction of Libya and Syria, and the electoral upsets of 2016 (Trump and Brexit). The Wests triumphalism, after winning the cold war has been dampened by these events but has not entirely gone. The situation has become even more complicated as we add the increasing awareness of global warming and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
What should be evident to anyone who was paying attention is that the cold war victors were wrong; they acted in the classically old-fashioned way of victors and embarked on expansion and foreign wars, given the degree of success attached to these ventures one could label it strategic overreach. The failures showed the limits of their power and around the world politicians in the new power blocks that were emerging, and solidifying took note.
The Ukraine War brings Act 1 to a dramatic end, it shows not only the precise boundaries of the western power bloc but also reveals it weakness, and share of culpability, this has been commented on by many across the political spectrum Note; Western Weakness