But something is different
There are however two things that make this war different, and which do need to be considered.
- The first is that this is a war of aggression undertaken by a nuclear power that had previously signed a memorandum guaranteeing the security of the country it is invading. This doesn’t even have the fig leaf of legality that the West habitually seeks for its own military actions.
- The second is closely related, it is the danger of nuclear escalation. The danger stems from the aftereffects of the cold war, on the Russian side perceptions of defeat, accompanied by humiliation and anger, on the EU and NATO side its distorted mirror image – perceptions of victory, accompanied by feelings of righteousness and anger.
The assumptions underlying military strategy and tactics of the West in the post-cold war nuclear world are no just out of date, they are plainly wrong. The United Nations is now being ignored and by relying on nuclear deterrence at the expense of conventional forces, as it has, the merest hint of escalation means a war of aggression can be waged. To be clear this is a simple war for territory, not for an abstract idea of liberty, not to end oppression but rather to spread it) and the West apparently cannot do anything to stop it.
Even the chaotic but jocular Boris Johnson had to confront this reality. At a news conference in Poland on 1st March 2022 faced with the true statement that West had agreed to protect Ukrainian security and a direct request for a no-fly zone by Daria Kaleniuk, the Prime Minister Johnson responded:
“I just want to say I am acutely conscious there is not enough we can do as the UK government to help in the way that you want. I’ve got to be honest about that. When you talk about the no-fly zone … unfortunately the implication of that is that the UK would be engaged in shooting down Russian planes, would be engaged in direct combat with Russia. That’s not something we can do.”
Various NATO commentators have repeated this, it seems to be the accepted line. And there have been strenuous efforts to row back from Joe Bidens off-mike comments about regime change Note; Cannot remain in power
Deterrence has failed to deter any war other than nuclear war and my not even be able to do that. Wars are fought by the West in faraway places, they are fought with or by proxies and although we claim the moral high ground there are often moral hazards posed by commercial interest, not the least being oil, as well as the expanding use of assassination as a tool of policy Note; Moral high ground? . There was nothing honourable in the carpet bombing of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia (including the use of chemical Agent Orange), the stifling of an elected government in Chile, or the branding of various wars of liberation as communist insurgencies to be fought against or otherwise subverted. This may come as a surprise to many who don’t remember the cold war or study history and chose instead to remember Somalia or Serbia, but as we have seen, the rest of the world does not have the same view
Note; how others see us . NATO and the EU have now drawn a line around their power block – surprising many by the show of unity. That’s no use to Ukraine because it is on the other side of the line.