How might this play out?
Putin is an ex KGB Officer, he regards the position Russia is in as humiliating and he wants to rebuild it as a power to be reconned with. Concerned citizens (and many pundits) have no certain way of telling if this is a miscalculation, madness or just the plan.
Miscalculation
It looks like a miscalculation, perhaps he thought it would be like Anschluss, the initial incursions were by light and reconnaissance troops but that could equally well be a cock up. It does not mean that having started it will not be taken to its conclusion.
Madness
It may signify what David Owen calls Hubris Syndrome Note; Hubris but it was undoubtedly ruthless and deliberate. If it is we really do need to tread with caution; the bombing of Berlin got this response from Hitler “We may be destroyed, but if we are, we will drag a world with us – a world in flames” Note; World in flames
Part of the plan
Russia under Putin is known to use misinformation as a tactic, to cause as much confusion as possible and make it difficult to establish what is true and what is false. To deliberately cause confusion is part of the playbook Note; Confusion as a tactic
The invasion was launched on 22nd February and according to most observers has not gone as expected, but it does seem to fit a pattern Note; A pattern . If the pictures of Grozny from the war in Chechenia are a guide, and it was described by the UN as the most devastated city in the world at the time, then this war in the Ukraine it will get worse and worse.
There are many possible ways that this can end, the BBCs Diplomatic Correspondent identified 5 distinct possibilities; short war, long war, European war (with possibility of nuclear escalation), diplomatic solution and Putin ousted Note; Possible Outcomes
These should be considered as the exemplar cases of the sorts of things that could happen, each one is full of details that also may or may not happen so the eventual outcome could well include elements of several of them. One outcome that may occur given the way the fighting on the ground is turning out is some form of partition with a frozen border on ongoing diplomatic tensions. This looks like the short war but with the puppet regime(s) being installed only in the eastern and Black Sea areas, whether there is ongoing guerrilla action and protests in the captured areas is unclear.
The underlying point is that once a war is committed to the outcome is always uncertain – the enemy is simultaneously trying to wreck your plans, secondly any action you take will provoke reactions; there will be immediate as well as long term consequences which cannot be easily foreseen.
The risks are real
All this is bad enough, what is beginning to be talked about now is what happens if Putin crosses a red line and uses a tactical nuclear weapon or chemical weapons. It is implied that this would be in the theatre (to use the jargon) not against a NATO member. Jonathan Powell was clear on BBCR4 World at One (10 March) that the west needs to be thinking about this now, he implied we would need to do something.
This sort of thing is alarming, the author can remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. But if we unpack a red line what is being said is simple enough – there are some ways of killing people that are OK and others are not. We will sit by as thermobaric bombs are used (saving arms supply and economic sanctions), we will lament the mass shootings now coming to light, but we will consider an attack on Russian assets by NATO, if a red line is crossed, risking escalation and to what end?
The right response to a war is to end it and the right response to a war crime is to prosecute it. As a citizen I demand that my government at least make the effort to think this though coherently and act morally.