Choices

That these actions are not a statements of the bleeding obvious shows just how tunnel visioned the West view now is. If they appear to be idealistic and not workable then perhaps it is because the West is partly culpable for normalising war and having corrupted the UN in the process of seeking cover for its own interventions.

That does not mean that we should continue down a wrong and dangerous route or that it is too late to change tack. The war in the Ukraine could be the nail in the coffin of a rules-based world order and poses the risk of nuclear escalation. As always we have a choices.

We can continue as we are, stand aside of face the into the problem with some vision and determination. 

Continue as we are, with sanctions and arms supply, waiting until a so called “red line” has been crossed and this goes in a number of ways

Economic sanctions may be treated as economic warfare; to the surprise of many pundits in the West that is what they say they look like. If it looks like that to us and your war is going badly, what does it look like to Putin and those round him? Retaliation has been mentioned. Unless we spell out the route back as well as backing up tough talking with action that show we are developing non-nuclear capability to back up our words then we are taking enormous risks with the possibly disastrous consequences

Support an insurgency and live with continued risks for years to come – see the geographical boundaries of the new power blocks solidify and mistrust mount, participate in a reinvigorated arms race.

We may get lucky and one of the other power blocks provides a broker and framework for a diplomatic solution, Turkey is keen, China may see an opportunity

At some stage, to meet popular anger that something must be done, bring down Armageddon for a principle – no signs of this so far but talk of red lines is worrying

Stand aside, reinforce the EU/NATO demarcation line and stay out of it, let the other power blocks get on with their business and hope for the best, after all business is business. 

Article 5 has not been invoked, Ukraine is not in NATO, so strengthen the cohesiveness of the West as a power block, settle down to being just one pole in a multi-polar world

All that can be said for this is that it at least does no immediate harm but if our leaders really believe they are powerless that is the true logic of their position. It would actually mean that economic sanction are a way of showing disapproval but by the same token they should be limited and targeted, the West should not engage in economic warfare, pretend that sanctions will end the war, bring down Putin or help Ukraine. Our politicians just don’t have the bottle to spell this out to their electorates who can see a wrong that violated everything their governments tell them they stand for.

Face into the problem with vision and determination. The world should act responsibly and face the challenge posed by Putin, the West should be leading – not because this is a local European war but because it is a betrayal by a member if the Security Council and comes with nuclear threats. The object is to bring the war to an end and do so in such a way that recovers and starts to repair what is left of the rules-based world order.

Use the principles of just war theory, match ends and mean and do the hard work inside the UN to make it work – twist arms, make deals get it sorted, this requires vision, leadership, and a calculation of the match between ends and means  Note; Twist arms and make deals

It is also necessary to put the world into a place where concerted action can be taken in the future, something we will need as global warming effects kick in.

The signs are not good, I am especially upset by the “progressive” parties to whom an approach along the lines suggested should be obvious; but it is not too late, all other outcomes are worse.