Getting it wrong on purpose?

Introduction

Even without its own goals the Labour Government would be up-against it. Assuming it is acting deliberately, then its mistakes are made on purpose. Here I explore the forces behind this tragedy. Labour must confront those forces if we are to head off the danger of a right-wing government being elected in 2029.

It is a puzzle (to me) why this government is neither practicing aggressive news management nor trying to rise above the noise by explaining its overall vision. What is unbelievable (to me) is how the people it should be helping are instead being asked to sacrifice more to put right problems that are not of their making, that it sets out to operate within tight rules (of its own making) that only benefit those who are already winning. What is surprising (and hopeful to me) is that so many people remain who support a more progressive approach.

The tragedy is that the government isn’t listening, it expels friendly critics and reinforces authoritarian rules for protest. It thinks it must triangulate and appease minority opinion, it sets itself up as a technocratic fixer, it’s like a mechanic tying to tune a misfiring engine not realising that the crankshaft is broken. Many more people are going to become disengaged and disillusioned, frustrated with slow progress. The inability to talk straight (for fear of swing voters) means that the small angry minority will grow. 

To ensure a right wing, properly authoritarian government gets into power in 2029 all that those who want it have to do is this; keep their activists wound up, ensure they continue to dominate social media, perpetuate the impression that society is collapsing, keep insisting that libertarianism is mainstream, accuse their opponents of being dangerous extremists, use their access to unlimited money to make this seem real in the distorting mirror of social media and channel it into the Westminster bubble. Then use their control of the technology and data to triangulate and target marginals and leapfrog labour in their ability to do it in the marginals. Presto.

This is not overstating the case, all the ingredients exist, we have had previews.  We can see what is happening in the US. Systems thinking can be our guide.

Politics and Government 

Politics by one definition is an argument amongst the powerful over how society should be managed (Sapolsky^[1]) and in another a mechanism for the resolution of conflict that might otherwise become violent (Crick^[2]). 

• Politics is a system, it has inputs (elections, public opinion, lobbying), it has processes (debate, legislation and scrutiny) and outputs (approval of legislation, investment decisions). It has feedback, people react, politicians notice. In a democracy the ultimate form of feedback takes the form of an election.
• Government is also a system, it can equally be described as governance. This has tax as input, execution as the process and delivery and spending as output. 

Seen in this way the political system is for debating and deciding how society should be governed, and the governance system is about doing it.  

Both debate and delivery – politics and governance need to work properly.  There are many competing views, these need to be fully aired and resolved.  The political system often takes the governance system for granted e.g. when there is legislation to extend the criminal law - it is assumed that the police and courts, the governance system, will be able to cope. 

Both the political and governance systems in the UK are now more severely dysfunctional than they have been for a long time. The health of the political system is a first order problem; until politics is fixed, governance will continue to fail. This is because when politics fails or is conducted badly conflict isn’t resolved, the debate isn’t settled and the things the government attempts to do are challenged at every step, some don’t get delivered at all. That is reason enough to be concerned about the future.

Short-term thinking in politics isn’t new

Politicians have always focussed on the election cycle; they always will because parliaments and governments only last for 5 years. Any system of rules can be gamed, and politicians will look for ways to advantage themselves. We must acknowledge these ever-present dangers and design the political system accordingly.  

Looking at politics and government as systems help us identify what is going wrong.